blog.jimbo.org.uk

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You'd make a great politician, though you at least admit that use of statistics can be dodgy..

What proportions of people attended public displays? How does the risk of attending a private display not run by idiots compare to the risk of attending a public display? How does the risk of attending a firework display compare to the risk of crossing the road (etc)?

A very quick look suggests that about 1100 people were injured by fireworks, and about 250,000 people are injured on the roads every year. Let's say (conservatively) that 1/5 of the population went to some form of display, and average out over all kinds of displays. That makes the risk of doing so about the same as two week's worth of risk on the roads. Assuming the distribution of severity of injuries were similar, etc etc.
[http://www.thinkroadsafety.gov.uk/statistics.htm]

All very vague but I personally think that I have friends who aren't idiots and that I'm probably about as safe at a private display as I am driving to it, and I'll enjoy the social atmosphere more. Not that I actually went to anything this year.

Sorry about the lack of line breaks, the ones I wrote are being ignored and its stripping the HTML I tried to insert them with..

I think my main point was more "despite these injuries, big displays are pretty damn safe", rather than "these statistics show that everyone who has a private display dies a horrible death." But also, just because you think your friends are competent enough to set off fireworks safely, that doesn't mean most people are, necessarily.

And none of this changes the fact that an organised display has (generally) a way bigger firework budget, leading to a longer / more impressive display.

I agree that public displays are generally very safe. However, it's not fair to imply, as you do, that private displays are dangerous things; you don't even back up your assertion that public ones are "safer", let alone provide a reasonable argument that private ones are unacceptably dangerous.

And I still prefer private displays, for the social reasons I gave.

There's a key aspect of risk which I have to say I'm surprised hasn't been mentioned - whether the risk can be reduced.

If people are aware of the risk and it has been minimised then you can't ask for much more than that whatever the end-of-the-day figures for injuries and death turn out to be. If there's even one slight injury that could have been easily prevented then that's what needs chasing down.

Sure, only 11 people may have been injured in all and it's good that that figure is low, but is there something practical that could have been done to make that zero? That's the question that's going to be asked and it's going to be asked whether it's one person injured in the country or a hundred.

Hmmm. The pie chart Jimbo's talking about quite clearly shows that if you've been injured with a firework, you were probably at a private party.

At no point does jimbo say that private parties are "dangerous" or (as the hyperbole hits higher) "unacceptably dangerous."

There are no statistics regarding how many people attend each type of event, so we can't be specific about which type is actually safer.

But we can speculate. If we think about the vast number of fireworks launched at a public display compared to a private, it might suggest again that something going wrong in a public display is very unlikely.

Also the fact that public displays are often automated, whereas private ones involve someone lighting a fuse and running away, might suggest that at least the moment of ignition is far safer at public displays. Another factor is that people are usually kept far further back from the fireworks than at a private function.

There is also more likely to be medical assistance on-hand at a public event.

Additionally, were we to (say) assign a tiny probability to a firework malfunctioning and launching sideways (or whatever), then simple arithmetic might lead us to conclude that 15000 people watching 50 fireworks (at a public display) are far less likely to be hit than 15000 people watching 18750 fireworks (at private parties, assuming 25 fireworks and 20 people per party).

Lastly, accusing people of being like a politician is both unhelpful and politician-like (as is all rhetoric). I realise this sets up a feedback loop with me accusing myself, but hey.

Oh, and road safety? Isn't this a red herring, except to set up the phrase, "I'm probably about as safe at a private display as I am driving to it." Not sure what real value this has.